FINA STRATEGY

¿Thin Strategy?

Rafael Nieto Loaiza

By Rafael Nieto Loaiza

Curious that euphoria that sometimes overwhelms us. There will be, say, because after so much suffering is received with enthusiasm spilled anything, no matter how small it appears to improve the plight that has oppressed us.

Happened after the meeting in Santa Marta between President Santos and Lt. Colonel next door. Applause and cheers and unthinking optimism. I mean, not before say that, of course, in principle it is better to have direct dialogue and diplomatic relations that do not have them.

But the story with Chavez calls for caution. First, because the past shows a dozen personal meetings between the Colombian President and Lieutenant Colonel, that several of them are 'turned the page', and around a few months, new tensions emerged. Then, for reasons of confrontation between the two governments remain the same: a) the expansionary nature of the 'socialist revolution of the Century', b) the need for an 'enemy' external to unify the revolutionary armies and to justify the accumulation military capacity and the purchase of military equipment and c) the use of 'crisis' external to distract the media and the Venezuelan domestic needs and political dynamics; d) the nature cyclothymic character of Lieutenant Colonel, prone to a carousel of exaltations and tantrums, and e) the tolerance and complicity of the government in Caracas with the presence in its territory by Colombian guerrillas and their political and logistical support to it.

All these reasons are there, intact. No, not much to remember, removed or changed. The skepticism is unfounded.

In these circumstances, what was it that led to the Lieutenant Colonel to sit at table cloths with whom he has described as "mafia" and "representative of the worst in Bogota oligarchy"? In Colombia, no one wants to ask. Would you believe some of being infected with the growing regional enthusiasm Santos? Or that, like that of Tarsus, a divine ray became the sinner? The naivete bordering on nonsense.

¿Strategy ...?

May be several explanations: that the Lieutenant Colonel has concluded that the break with Colombia hurts in parliamentary elections that will come up, that the pressure of Lula and Castro, who does not suit the crisis between Colombia and Venezuela , forced him to change, at least for now, its position, that by way of comparison showing it wants Uribe to dismiss as the culprit of bad relationships, or that the strategy of the outgoing President, so vilified and misunderstood in our country, it has cornered forcing him to meet with Santos and accept its conditions.

There is probably something of all this, but my opinion is that Uribe put him on the ropes in the OAS by making public some of the evidence against him and denouncing the ICC. As unlikely as it is the transit of that complaint to the ICC requires the Lieutenant Colonel to be much more careful in the future. Uribe did the dirty work, paved the way for Santos, and it all will gain. A unexpected result or product of a concerted strategy between Uribe and Santos? If it were, I do not know. Part of the success is in denial.

August 15, 2010